New Delhi, Delhi

The picture surrounding the 2027 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur is gradually becoming clearer. Changes to the Census schedule indicate that elections in these states could potentially be held during February–March 2027.

The government has decided to conduct the population-enumeration phase of the Census earlier in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa. In Manipur, however, the house-listing phase of the Census has been postponed. The changes are being viewed as an effort to avoid a clash between the administrative resources required for the elections and the Census.

Four States Will See Their Terms End in March

Among these five states, the Manipur Assembly will have the earliest expiry, with its term ending on March 13, 2027. This will be followed by Goa on March 14, Punjab on March 16, and Uttarakhand on March 18. The term of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly runs until May 22, 2027.

Since elections in all five states were held around the same period in 2022, there is a possibility that the 2027 elections could also be conducted around the same time. Under the Election Commission’s normal process, elections can be completed before the term of the earliest-expiring Assembly comes to an end.

In Uttar Pradesh, voting could potentially take place around two months before the Assembly’s term expires. Given the state’s large population and huge electorate, polling may be conducted in multiple phases.

Election Announcement Could Come in January

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls is also underway in the poll-bound states. The process has already been completed in three states, while the final electoral rolls for Punjab and Uttarakhand are expected to be released in the coming months.

The Central Government has decided to conduct the population-enumeration phase in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand’s non-snowbound areas and Goa between December 1, 2026 and January 4, 2027, with January 5 designated as the reference date.

A large number of government employees and teachers are deployed for Census-related work. These personnel also play an important role in election duties. Conducting both exercises simultaneously could therefore create significant administrative challenges.

The change in the Census schedule is consequently being seen as a move to prevent such a potential overlap. Against this backdrop, the possibility of an election schedule announcement around January 2027, followed by polling in February–March 2027, appears increasingly plausible.